Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Any Great Teams? 2010

Do we have any great teams in the NHL this year?  Any team that stands out, not from this year's competition, but from the best of other years?

First, lets identify the teams that are in contention for this discussions this year.  The way we have done it in the past is to use the 100-point mark.  How many teams have hit, or are likely to hit 100 points?  Well, as this column is written (April 7, 2010), there are 5 teams with 100 points (Wash, SJ, Chi, Pho, Van).  Other teams that are likely to hit 100 points (less than or same number of points required to hit 100 as games left) are NJ, Buf, Nash, LA, and Pitt.  That is another 5.  Det has a chance, 4 points required and 3 games left.

So that is 11 teams that have, or are likely to, or can reasonably, reach 100 points this season.  BUT WAIT!  We can't use the 100-point milestone.  We can't use the same criteria to identify great teams any more.  The league has more points available now, due to that stupid OT Loss point.   Here is a table I put together:


Team Games Remaining Wins Points Possible Points Loss Points Real Max Points Points per game
Washington 2 53 118 122 12 110 1.34
San Jose 2 49 109 113 11 102 1.24
Chicago 3 50 107 113 7 106 1.29
Phoenix 3 48 102 108 6 102 1.24
Vancouver 2 48 101 105 5 100 1.21
New Jersey 3 46 99 105 7 98 1.19
Buffalo 3 44 98 104 10 94 1.14
Nashville 2 46 98 102 6 96 1.17
Los Angeles 3 45 97 103 7 96 1.17
Pittsburgh 3 45 97 103 7 96 1.17
Detroit 3 41 96 102 14 88 1.07


Real Max Points are equal to the Possible points the team would have in a 2-point per game world, based on current standings.  It is (Wins + Games Remaining) * 2.  Points Per Game (PPG) are the Real Max Points divided by the number of games in the season (82).

So, the BEST? team in the league, if you compare them to other historical teams that are based on 2-point games, come up woefully short, in Points per Game:

Team Season GP Points PPG
Washington 09-10 82 110 1.34
Pittsburgh 92-93 84 119 1.42
Calgary 88-89 80 117 1.46
NY Islanders 81-82 80 118 1.48
Edmonton 83-84 80 119 1.49
Boston  71-72 78 119 1.53
Montreal 72-73 78 120 1.54
Montreal 75-76 80 127 1.59
Detroit 95-96 82 131 1.60
Montreal 76-77 80 132 1.65

All the teams in the list were considered Stanley Cup favourites.  Well, except for this year's Washington team.  No great teams this year, unless you change your definition of great.

Friday, April 2, 2010

This Season's Weirdest Statistic

The Ottawa Senators have a W-L record of 43-30 at the time of this post, so they have won 13 more games than they have lost.  The weird part?  They've given up 9 more goals than they've scored.  I'm still trying to figure out if that means that they are dangerous threats for the playoffs or not.