Tuesday, October 27, 2009

NHL Canadian Relocation - Bad News

Jim Balsille's bid to have an NHL team relocated to Canada has stirred up a lot of emotions 'north of the border'.  Canadians began to ask "why not?  This is the home of hockey, why can't we have another NHL team? Americans are great sports fans, but they don't know hockey.  They don't love hockey like we do."

Sounds reasonable.  And I agree with it.  But lets take a look at the facts.

Fact #1  The NHL is starving for a big contract for their TV rights in America. 

Well, that's one fact.  And the only one that matters.

There are 10 Americans for every Canadian (see here), so it stands to reason that there are a lot of fans waiting to be converted.  To get the contract of his dreams, Gary Bettman must get the NHL on TV to as many people as possible, which means that he has to locate teams in as many large markets as possible. This has led to the current layout of the NHL's franchises, which include some very bizarre choices for NHL hockey - Nashville, Phoenix, Anaheim, Miami and Tampa.  I don't understand Miami.  Why Miami?  

I looked for a list of North America's largest cities, and found one here.  I exported the list to a spreadsheet, removed all the Mexican cities, Panamanian cities, Cuban cities, etc and sorted by the Largest Urban Areas (New York was #1, Livonia was last).  Here is some interesting findings:
  1. The Canadian cities were listed at postions 8, 14, 24, 48, 55 and 58.  Some pretty low rankers on the list are Canadian cities.  So there are at least 29 markets (Position 58 - 29 other NHL teams) in the USA that do not have NHL teams.
  2. Houston fits in at position 11.  No NHL team.  Sure it shares a state with Dallas, but if Florida can handle two teams, can't Texas?
  3. Seattle at position 14.  No NHL team.  Sure, it's close to Vancouver but if Florida can handle two teams, can't the Vancouver/Seattle area?
  4. Cleveland was higher than I expected - 16.  I guess the NHL does not want to be associated with the Most Miserable Sports Town in America (Browns, Indians, Cavs).  Why not, they MUST have the most patient fans.
  5. Portland at 22.  See Seattle.
  6. Cincinnati.  No NHL team. 
  7. Nashville is at 40.  At least a population this small hasn't won a Stanley Cup.
  8. Raleigh is at 42.  Damn.
  9. The next highest ranked Canadian city that does not have an NHL team is Quebec.  At 63.  Winnipeg is at 64.  The other great hope - Hamilton - weighs in at 88.
Can you blame the NHL for not relocating to Canada if Seattle/Houston/Cleveland/Portland/etc are available?  Why doesn't Seattle - the 14th largest Metropolitan area in North America - ever get mentioned in relocation talks?  It is a Northern American city with a history of supporting hockey teams.  How did Nashville or Raleigh get a team before Seattle, Houston, Cleveland or Portland?

I can't see Canada getting another NHL team any day soon.  I can't make the numbers work.

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