Why Games are Managed

It's Saturday morning, and I have a choice between writing this post or watching this crap.  So I'm writing.

My last post explored the concept of Game Management by NHL referees.  Basically, the theory is that the referees try to make games more palatable to fans by calling penalties according to certain formulas (or patterns).  There was no groundbreaking revelations in that post - intelligent hockey fans have made those deductions for themselves and have probably detected more formulas than was listed.

This post is to be more conspiratorial.  Let's discuss "Why".  Why does the NHL want their games managed?

Well, the first reason is easy enough to determine.  The NHL argues that exciting hockey is generated by games that are close.  Like casual hockey fans, the NHL would like the score of the game with 5 minutes remaining to be withing one goal.  In their opinion, which has been expressed in interviews, fans enjoy games more when the score is close.  Which is correct, of course.  The NHL, however, will take steps to ensure that games remain close in order to increase attendance which increases their revenue make it more exciting for the fans.  So, the first reason is that they believe "close games make money".  I can write a 1000-word post on how wrong this is, but will leave that for another day. (Quickly: referees are contributing to the game's outcome - BAD).

The other reason we'll explore is more of an theory, because no actual physical evidence exists.  No newspaper would touch this.  Gambling.  I am not accusing any active referee was involved in a points-shaving scheme, but I'm raising the question.  If an NBA referee could do it, what would stop an NHL referee?  We've already proven that NHL referees have a direct impact on the outcome or score of games and have identified the formulas that they use to do so.  What stops a referee from betting on a game and then calling the game's penalties to influence the score?  How easy would it be for a referee to call the game to keep the score close to help his bet?  Or worse, how easy is it for organized crime to be involved?

The next post will look at what can be done.  Because something needs to be done.

Game Management in the NHL

The NHL uses, for various reasons, what I like to call "Game Management".  There - it's been said.  And it is on the Internet so it must be true, right?

Actually, it is true.  And we all know it.  But what is it?  What is "Game Management"?

It is the NHL's practice of controlling the outcome of games by controlling aspects of each game.  Before we look at "why", lets look at "how" the NHL manages games in this post.


How the NHL Manages their Games

The NHL manages their games by using their officials to influence hockey games through penalty calls or non-calls.  If we watch an NHL game with a copy of the NHL Rulebook in our hands, you will notice that a significant amount of the gameplay rules are not called as they appear in writing. When reviewing the rulebook, referees are granted discretion in determining the severity of a penalty (Major vs Minor) but not in calling the penalty.  The word "Any" is used to describe the criteria for calling a penalty, as in Any Action... or ...any player....  Check out the rulebook for more instances, but the fact remains that referees are not provided the right to discretion when calling penalties, if we look at the rulebook.  If a referee sees a penalty they should be calling the penalty.  But they don't. 

If you've ever watched a NHL Hockey game, you have examples of obvious penalties that were not called.  You've seen, and probably yelled about, that missed hooking call.  Or that tripping penalty that didn't get called.  Sure, hockey is a fast game and the referees have a tough job, but there is something else, a certain "je ne sais quoi".

Actually, je sais quoi.  The referees manage hockey games.  Maybe not every game, but most.  How?  They are deciding which penalties to call at what times.  They have penalty formulas to manage games.  These formulas are the the patterns used by the referees during games to call penalties.  Here are three formula's I've been able to identify:
  1.The "Keep it Fair" formula.  The referees will call the game to ensure that both teams will end up with the same number of penalties.  This formula has not been used as much since the lockout, but you'll still see it from time to time.
  2. The "Home Team".  The penalties are called with an eye to keeping the hometown fans happy with the opposing teams (aka The Heel) getting the bulk of called penalties regardless of the actual infractions that occur on the ice.
  3. The "Keep it Close" formula.  This is the most common formula, and has been used since ...well, ever. Here is how it works:
       a. Call the penalties pretty even through the first half of the game until a lead is built.  The new twist to this is that the 5-on-3 situations have to bee even as well.
       b. Start calling penalties against the leading team, but don't make it too obvious.  They may even throw in another 5-on-3 as well.
       c. With between eight to fourteen minutes left, call a penalty against the trailing team. 
       d. In fact, if a lot of penalties are being called against the leading team the referee can call another penalty against the trailing team - for appearances, y'know?

This post's contention, which has been logically laid out above, is that NHL referees actively attempt to influence the score and even outcome of NHL games.

Why?

NHL Canadian Relocation - Bad News

Jim Balsille's bid to have an NHL team relocated to Canada has stirred up a lot of emotions 'north of the border'.  Canadians began to ask "why not?  This is the home of hockey, why can't we have another NHL team? Americans are great sports fans, but they don't know hockey.  They don't love hockey like we do."

Sounds reasonable.  And I agree with it.  But lets take a look at the facts.

Fact #1  The NHL is starving for a big contract for their TV rights in America. 

Well, that's one fact.  And the only one that matters.

There are 10 Americans for every Canadian (see here), so it stands to reason that there are a lot of fans waiting to be converted.  To get the contract of his dreams, Gary Bettman must get the NHL on TV to as many people as possible, which means that he has to locate teams in as many large markets as possible. This has led to the current layout of the NHL's franchises, which include some very bizarre choices for NHL hockey - Nashville, Phoenix, Anaheim, Miami and Tampa.  I don't understand Miami.  Why Miami?  

I looked for a list of North America's largest cities, and found one here.  I exported the list to a spreadsheet, removed all the Mexican cities, Panamanian cities, Cuban cities, etc and sorted by the Largest Urban Areas (New York was #1, Livonia was last).  Here is some interesting findings:

1. The Canadian cities were listed at postions 8, 14, 24, 48, 55 and 58.  Some pretty low rankers on the list are Canadian cities.  So there are at least 29 markets (Position 58 - 29 other NHL teams) in the USA that do not have NHL teams.
   
2. Houston fits in at position 11.  No NHL team.  Sure it shares a state with Dallas, but if Florida can handle two teams, can't Texas?
3. Seattle at position 14.  No NHL team.  Sure, it's close to Vancouver but if Florida can handle two teams, can't the Vancouver/Seattle area?
4. Cleveland was higher than I expected - 16.  I guess the NHL does not want to be associated with the Most Miserable Sports Town in America (Browns, Indians, Cavs).  Why not, they MUST have the most patient fans.
   
5. Portland at 22.  See Seattle.
6. Cincinnati.  No NHL team. 
7. Nashville is at 40.  At least a population this small hasn't won a Stanley Cup.
8. Raleigh is at 42.  Damn.
9. The next highest ranked Canadian city that does not have an NHL team is Quebec.  At 63.  Winnipeg is at 64.  The other great hope - Hamilton - weighs in at 88.

Can you blame the NHL for not relocating to Canada if Seattle/Houston/Cleveland/Portland/etc are available?  Why doesn't Seattle - the 14th largest Metropolitan area in North America - ever get mentioned in relocation talks?  It is a Northern American city with a history of supporting hockey teams.  How did Nashville or Raleigh get a team before Seattle, Houston, Cleveland or Portland?

I can't see Canada getting another NHL team any day soon.  I can't make the numbers work.

Nick Kypreos is obviously a reader

Article

I understand that Nick Kypreos is a pretty passionate guy, but I don't think I'm whining.  Or am I?  It doesn't matter, I'm just proud of Nick that he could write an article - if you believe that he did it by himself.  I think he had help, he sure ain't (yes - i wrote "ain't") no Chris Shultz.

It's pretty obvious that Nick had somebody read some of these blog posts to him.  He doesn't come across as being somebody who would read a, um... anything. 

Here's a quick rebuttal to Nick, that he'll probably have that same person read to him:

The problems started with expansion.  The NHL started to expand in 1991, and continued to add teams over the next decade or so - Columbus joined the NHL in 2000 as the last expansion team of the era.  Prior to expansion, the NHL was ruled by speed, scoring and saves.  The NHL changed during the expansion years to allow the new teams to compete with the established teams.  Would an owner who just paid 50 or 80 million dollars want to have their new toy get broken 82 times every year?  Would they want to have their new hockey team lose every game by lopsided scores?  They dreaded becoming the 2009-2010 Toronto Maple Leafs.  So what was the answer?

Create conditions during gameplay that gave less talented teams the ability to keep the score close.  Sensible, except it makes for boring hockey.  What can we look at as evidence?
* Don't call so many penalties for obstruction.
* Game Management by referees.  See upcoming blog.
* Lou Lamouriello Lamerilo Lamorillo.  Damn! New Jersey Devils.
* Gary Bettman's repeated explanation that he believes exciting hockey is dictated by the score of the game.  He would smugly cite the close score of the game, instead of talking about the exciting plays or great flow.  That's because there were no exciting plays or great flow to games.  We're actually still waiting for that to return.

Nick, you apparently subscribe to the old adage "If something ain't (!) broke, don't fix it". It is 'broke'.  You just can't read the signs.

The Heel

As we've been taught by Professional Wrestling, every hero (aka babyface) needs a heel.  If we look at good, exciting hockey as the hero, then Colin Campbell is the heel.  Much more on that to come.

Make Teams Pay for Suspended Players

I have a beef (several, actually) about the NHL's disciplinary system.  This is the first of my posts on the topic, and it is focused on player suspensions.  If the NHL is serious about discipline, they will pay me for the following idea:

Players that get suspended remain on the team's NHL roster, but his paycheck goes to the NHLPA charities while he is suspended.


That's it.  Easy.

Implications: 
- The suspended player's salary will count towards the salary cap
- The player's salary who is used to replace the suspended player will also count towards the salary cap
- The suspended player is not able to be demoted to the minor leagues, removing the loophole (see the Steve Downie incident.)
This will mean that teams end up playing twice for a roster spot of a suspended player, decreasing the value of players that get suspended frequently.  This will lead to smaller paychecks for some of these players, and no jobs for some others.  Which is the whole point, anyway.

Pity for the Habs fans

In watching the Sens v Habs game last night, I began to feel pity for the fans of the Montreal Canadiens.  The Habs had dominated the play of the game, but not the score.  They had discovered how to exploit the defence of the Ottawa Senators to gain scoring chance over scoring chance, but were not able to take advantage of them.

OK, so a team not being able to 'bury their chances' is nothing new - so why the pity?

Because Jacques Martin is their coach. When coaching the Ottawa Senators, Jacques Martin lost a lot of these games - games that his team dominated but couldn't win. This is a movie that has been seen before.  Jacques Martin's team lost last night like his teams always lose.

So pity the Habs fans - they have a lot of heartbreaking losses coming this year.